18%OFF Code "Spring"on all Orders+Free shipping worldwide+Weekly Free Gift


Your Cart is Empty

Tesla's Q3 Performance and the Bigger Picture

Tesla's Q3 Performance and the Bigger Picture

The latest data on Tesla's production and delivery numbers is available, and the figures are not entirely unexpected. They slightly dropped in comparison to Q2, just as Tesla had mentioned in their recent earnings call. A total of 430,488 units were produced, with 435,059 units successfully delivered. My personal estimate was set at 455,000 units, which means I was off by roughly 4%. Interestingly, my estimate was still closer than what Wall Street projected.

In my opinion, given the number of cars Tesla had in transit and inventory, I anticipated a higher delivery number. However, logistics and operations are not as straightforward as they appear. When analyzing these numbers, it's essential to look beyond just one quarter and recognize Tesla's impressive growth trajectory over the past few years.

Many might label this quarter as a "miss" for Tesla, especially when juxtaposed against Wall Street's predictions. But it's essential to note that predictions, whether from Wall Street or independent analysts, are just educated guesses. Tesla remains aligned with their original guidance for the year. In fact, when compared to Q3 of the previous year, Tesla's growth stands at 26.5%. This growth is commendable, especially considering the temporary halt in their production due to the Model 3 update.

Breaking down Tesla's performance further:

- In the first three quarters of 2022, Tesla delivered 908,573 units.
- Only in the first two quarters of 2023, 889,015 units were delivered. This is almost on par with the entire performance from the first three quarters of the previous year.

These numbers challenge Gordon Johnson's claims that Tesla's growth has plateaued. In just the first three quarters of 2023, Tesla delivered 1,324,074 units, surpassing their total deliveries for 2022, which stood at 1,313,851. This is undeniable growth.

Tesla's production figures tell a similar success story. With one quarter still remaining in 2023, their production numbers are nearly on par with the entire 2022. They produced 1,369,611 cars in 2022, while the count for the first three quarters of 2023 is 1,350,996. The growth is evident, irrespective of Gordon Johnson's viewpoints. In the first three quarters of 2022, 929,910 units were produced, marking a growth of more than 45% this year. In an era of high interest rates and global economic challenges, such growth figures for high-value products are commendable.

One strategy that Tesla has employed is prioritizing sales volume over immediate automotive profits. They are banking on future software profits, especially from services like the Full Self Driving (FSD) package. It's worth mentioning that 2022 was a unique year. The average selling price (ASP) of a Tesla vehicle was notably high, and there were challenges related to the ramping up of two new factories. However, even with these challenges, the cost of producing a Tesla in Q2 2023 reverted to the levels seen in Q2 2021. As the new factories increase their production volumes, we can anticipate further cost reductions. Even with a 20% lower ASP in Q2 2023 compared to Q2 2022, their Gross Margin (GM) remained competitive at 19.2%, surpassing other industry players.

To achieve their 2023 delivery target of 1.8 million units, Tesla would need to deliver 475,926 units in Q4. This seems feasible, especially considering there won't be any production stops as witnessed in Q3. Optimistically, their production could cross the 500,000 mark, leading to deliveries exceeding 480,000 units. While it's unlikely for Tesla to cross 1.9 million deliveries in 2023, a figure between 1.8-1.82 million appears plausible. It's worth noting that Tesla's guidance remains at 1.8 million, emphasizing that they are on track.

In the coming days, many discussions will revolve around Tesla's Q3 performance, with some treating it as a pivotal moment for the company. However, it's worth asking: Do many remember the specifics of Q3 2021? For context, Tesla's Q3 2021 deliveries were up 71% YoY. The current Q3 figures are 86% higher than that. If we go back another year to Q3 2020, the present numbers are a staggering 211% higher.

Tesla's growth over the years has been phenomenal, unmatched by any large manufacturer. Despite challenges like production line upgrades, they've managed a growth of 26% compared to last year's Q3. As we look forward to Q3 2024, it's safe to expect another impressive year-on-year growth, making this quarter just another data point in Tesla's upward trajectory.

We await October 18th for Tesla's earnings report, which will provide deeper insights into Q3's revenue, profits, and more. For now, one thing is clear: the Tesla growth story continues, and it's nothing short of impressive.

Watch my video on the topic here: 

Thanks for reading. Lars Strandridder, BestInTESLA


Leave a comment

Also in Tesla News

The Rocky Road Ahead: BYD, Tesla, and the Shifting Dynamics of the EV Industry
The Rocky Road Ahead: BYD, Tesla, and the Shifting Dynamics of the EV Industry

by Lars EVBASE November 02, 2023

The article delves into the financial challenges faced by electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD in Q3, highlighting a significant loss which underscores the contrasting profitability of Tesla in the same period. The comparison between Tesla and BYD is nuanced due to BYD's hybrid models and differing market segments. Amidst a broader 41% decline in global automotive free cash flows, Tesla's maintained profitability stands out, prompting a critical industry reflection. Traditional automakers are facing financial woes in the EV landscape, marking a pivotal moment for the sector as it navigates towards a sustainable and profitable future.
Read More
Debunking the Myth of Declining EV Demand: A Closer Look at Tesla's Unprecedented Growth
Debunking the Myth of Declining EV Demand: A Closer Look at Tesla's Unprecedented Growth

by Lars EVBASE November 01, 2023 8 Comments

The article refutes the notion of declining Electric Vehicle (EV) demand, highlighting instead the robust sales and growth of Tesla in various global markets. It mentions how specific instances like Panasonic's reduced battery cell production are misleadingly used to suggest a broader demand issue. The article emphasizes Tesla's record-breaking sales, especially the Model Y becoming the world's best-selling car, as evidence of strong EV demand. It also contrasts Tesla's success with traditional automakers like Ford, who are reportedly facing demand issues, attributing this discrepancy to legacy automakers' reluctance to fully embrace the EV transition due to short-term financial concerns.
Read More
BP Partners with Tesla in a $100 Million Investment to Boost EV Charging Infrastructure
BP Partners with Tesla in a $100 Million Investment to Boost EV Charging Infrastructure

by Lars EVBASE Oktober 27, 2023

BP has collaborated with electric vehicle leader, Tesla, in a pivotal partnership to expand the EV charging infrastructure in the US. The partnership involves BP's $100 million investment in Tesla's advanced V4 superchargers. While Tesla will provide the hardware and software, BP will handle the installation, branding the chargers under its name. This move is part of BP's broader goal to invest $1 billion in the US EV charging infrastructure by 2030. The alliance is indicative of a broader industry trend, with companies choosing Tesla's reliable and cost-effective charging technology for infrastructure development.
Read More